LONDON, UK – The probability of one of the next five years surpassing the limit is now 50 percent, up from 20 percent in 2020. The year the world breaches for the first time the 1.5C global heating limit set by international governments is fast approaching, a new forecast shows.
The probability of one of the next five years surpassing the limit is now 50%, scientists led by the UK Met Office found. As recently as 2015, there was zero chance of this happening in the following five years. But this surged to 20% in 2020 and 40% in 2021. The global average temperature was 1.1C above pre-industrial levels in 2021.
It is also close to certain – 93% – that by 2026 one year will be the hottest ever recorded, beating 2016, when a natural El Niño climate event supercharged temperatures. It is also near certain that the average temperature of the next five years will be higher than the past five years, as the climate crisis intensifies.
Natural climate cycles can nudge global temperatures up or down. But the Paris Agreement requires nations to hold the underlying rise, driven by human activities, to well below 2C, as well as pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5C. The world’s scientists warned in 2018 that 1.5C of global heating will bring severe impacts to billions of people.
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