Analysts warn rebuilding key missile stockpiles could take years, raising questions about America’s readiness for a second major conflict

WASHINGTON – The United States has enough weapons to continue military operations against Iran, defense analysts say. The larger concern is what happens if another major conflict erupts before America can rebuild its depleted inventories of precision-guided missiles.

That question reportedly reached the White House this week. According to The Washington Post, President Donald Trump questioned Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth during a meeting at Camp David after learning more about the extent of U.S. munitions shortages following months of combat against Iran. The newspaper reported that concerns over shrinking inventories of long-range strike weapons and missile-defense interceptors had become significant enough to influence military planning.

The White House disputed key aspects of the report. President Trump publicly denied the United States is running dangerously low on weapons, saying America still possesses “massive amounts” of munitions while defense production continues to increase.

Whatever the details of the Camp David meeting, reporting by The Washington Post, Reuters and independent analyses by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) all point to the same underlying issue: inventories of several advanced precision weapons have declined significantly during the Iran campaign, while replacing many of them could require years rather than months.

Munition Estimated Iran-war use Current replacement outlook
Tomahawk cruise missiles More than 1,000 Late 2030
JASSM air-launched cruise missiles More than 1,100 Several months to roughly one year
THAAD interceptors Several hundred across recent Iran conflicts End of 2029
Patriot interceptors Potentially a very large share of prewar inventory Three years or longer
SM-3 and SM-6 naval interceptors Lower than ground-based systems Early 2029
Precision Strike Missile Smaller number Several months

The Bigger Question: What If China Moves On Taiwan?

Defense planners say the debate extends well beyond the current conflict with Iran.

The Pentagon has long identified China as America’s principal strategic competitor, and many of the same weapons now being used in the Middle East—including Tomahawk cruise missiles, Patriot and THAAD missile-defense interceptors, long-range Army missiles and advanced naval air-defense systems—would also be critical in any conflict over Taiwan.

In a July assessment, Mark F. Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and research associate Chris H. Park concluded that while the United States retains sufficient weapons to continue current operations, the greater strategic concern lies beyond today’s battlefield.

“The risk—which will persist for many years—lies in future wars.”

The authors warned that rebuilding inventories of several key missile systems will take years, leaving the United States with less margin should another large-scale conflict emerge before production catches up.

Reuters reported this week, citing people familiar with U.S. military inventories, that the Army has used virtually all of its stocks of Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM), while nearly half of the Navy’s Tomahawk cruise missile inventory has been consumed during the Iran campaign. Those are among the weapons defense planners expect would also play a major role in any U.S. response to a Chinese attack on Taiwan.

Rebuilding America’s Arsenal

Months before the latest White House reports surfaced, Cancian and Park published a May report titled “Rebuilding U.S. Missile Inventory: A Multiyear Project.”

Their analysis concluded that replacing more than 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles used during the Iran conflict could take until late 2030 under current procurement plans.

The report also estimated that rebuilding inventories of THAAD missile-defense interceptors could extend into late 2029, while Patriot interceptor production likewise would require years to restore prewar inventories despite planned manufacturing increases.

In a July follow-up report, the researchers concluded the situation had worsened after additional fighting.

Among their estimates:

  • Patriot interceptor inventories have declined roughly 65 percent from prewar levels.
  • THAAD interceptor inventories have fallen approximately 38 percent.
  • Production increases are underway, but rebuilding many of these stockpiles remains a multiyear effort.
  • Military commanders could eventually face difficult decisions about conserving high-end interceptors if another major conflict erupts before inventories recover.

Michigan Could Benefit

Patrick Anderson, principal and CEO of Anderson Economic Group, said the depletion of U.S. munitions and the wartime strain on defense assets will create new demand for replacement weapons, equipment and supporting materials.

“Much of that work can be done in the region that was once the ‘Arsenal of Democracy’ in World War II,” Anderson said.

He cautioned that rebuilding the nation’s military inventory involves far more than producing missiles.

“It’s important to understand the huge logistical and supply-base demands of wartime,” Anderson said. “There’s a reason America had to shut many of its factories during World War II so they could be converted to producing tanks, Jeeps, bombers, clothing, meal tins and so many other items needed by an army at war.”

The scale of the industrial mobilization would be much smaller today than it was after the United States entered World War II in 1941, Anderson said. But Michigan’s remaining manufacturing capacity gives the state an advantage as the Pentagon and defense contractors seek to replenish depleted inventories.

“Because Michigan is still the home of so much manufacturing, I think our state will get more of that business than most states,” Anderson said.

For Michigan, the discussion extends beyond national security.

The state is home to one of the nation’s largest defense manufacturing ecosystems, anchored by the Army’s Tank-automotive and Armaments Command (TACOM) and the DEVCOM Ground Vehicle Systems Center in Warren, along with General Dynamics Land Systems, American Rheinmetall, BAE Systems and hundreds of automotive suppliers capable of producing precision components for military systems.

If Congress approves the billions of dollars many analysts believe will be needed to replenish America’s missile inventories, Michigan manufacturers could be well positioned to compete for contracts involving missile components, electronics, autonomous systems, advanced materials and precision machining.

The debate also comes as the Pentagon increasingly evaluates lower-cost autonomous drones alongside expensive precision-guided missiles—a transition that could create additional opportunities for Michigan companies with expertise in mobility technologies, robotics, batteries, artificial intelligence and autonomous vehicles.

MITechNews has requested interviews with Cancian and Michigan defense industry leaders to better understand how rebuilding America’s arsenal could affect the state’s manufacturing sector and future defense-related employment.