New polling shows Democrats with a 12-point congressional preference advantage as Michigan Sen. Gary Peters joins demands for answers about federal election investigations.

WASHINGTON — With Democrats holding a 12-percentage-point advantage over Republicans in a new national congressional poll, U.S. Sen. Mark Warner is warning that President Donald Trump could use allegations of foreign election interference to challenge the results of the November 3 midterm elections.

Warner, a Virginia Democrat and vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, raised his concerns during an October 19 interview with Rachel Maddow on MS NOW.

During the interview, Warner discussed the possibility that Trump could use allegations of interference by foreign governments as justification for attempting to invalidate election results. Readers can watch the interview distributed through Yahoo News.

Warner’s warning describes a possible scenario, not an established plan by the administration.

Democrats Lead in National Congressional Poll

An October 19 Reuters/Ipsos survey found that 47% of registered voters preferred Democratic congressional candidates, compared with 35% supporting Republicans.

Trump’s approval rating was 31% among American adults, according to Reuters.

The survey included 1,679 adults, including 1,279 registered voters. The registered-voter margin of error was approximately three percentage points.

A separate ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos survey found Democrats leading Republicans 52% to 44% among likely voters.

National polling does not determine the outcome of individual House or Senate races.

Seven in Ten Doubt Trump Would Accept Republican Defeat

The ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos survey also found that approximately seven in ten Americans doubted Trump would accept the results if Republicans lost control of Congress.

The survey found that 94% of Democrats, 77% of independents and 36% of Republicans expressed doubts.

However, 60% of Americans believed the election would be conducted fairly, while 65% were confident votes would be counted accurately.

The findings measure public expectations, not Trump’s intentions.

Trump Has Questioned Election Results for a Decade

Trump’s allegations about election integrity date to his first presidential campaign.

During the 2016 Republican primaries, he complained that the political process was rigged. Later that year, he repeatedly warned that the presidential election could be manipulated.

An October 2016 FactCheck.org investigation found that his examples did not substantiate allegations of widespread voter fraud.

After winning the 2016 Electoral College but losing the popular vote, Trump claimed that millions of people had voted illegally. That allegation was not supported by evidence.

Following his defeat by Joe Biden in 2020, Trump repeatedly claimed that widespread fraud had changed the outcome.

Numerous legal challenges failed, including cases involving Michigan. FactCheck.org documented those unsuccessful challenges.

Federal and state election-security officials found no evidence of widespread fraud sufficient to change the presidential result.

Trump continued questioning the 2020 outcome during a July 2026 speech, according to a FactCheck.org review.

His history provides context for Warner’s concerns but does not establish what he intends to do following the November election.

Research Finds Widespread Voter Fraud Is Rare

Research has consistently found that documented voter impersonation and noncitizen voting are uncommon.

A Brennan Center for Justice investigation examined approximately 23.5 million votes cast in 42 jurisdictions across 12 states during the 2016 election.

Officials identified about 30 suspected incidents of noncitizen voting referred for investigation or prosecution, approximately 0.0001% of the votes examined.

The findings were not a nationwide estimate of all forms of fraud, and the suspected incidents were not necessarily confirmed violations.

The conservative Heritage Foundation maintains a database of documented election-fraud cases and argues that stronger safeguards are necessary because some violations may go undetected.

However, its database does not establish that widespread fraud altered the 2020 presidential election.

The Trump administration maintains that voter identification requirements, citizenship verification and investigations into possible violations are necessary to protect election integrity.

Michigan Senator Demands Answers

Michigan Democratic Sen. Gary Peters joined Warner and Democratic Sens. Dick Durbin of Illinois and Alex Padilla of California in demanding information from the Justice Department and FBI.

Their October 15 Senate announcement raised concerns about federal investigations involving state and local election administration.

The senators requested information from Attorney General Todd Blanche and FBI Director Kash Patel about federal investigations, voter records and possible law enforcement activity near polling locations.

Their statement identified Michigan and Arizona among states involved in federal election-related investigations.

The senators requested answers by October 29.

Their concerns do not establish that federal officials intend to interfere with Michigan’s election results.

Reuters Examines Nine Potential Election Scenarios

An October 14 Reuters investigation examined nine possible ways the administration could become involved in election administration or disputes over the results.

Reuters interviewed more than 50 election officials, attorneys and voting experts.

The scenarios included disputes involving voting equipment, federal investigations, election monitoring, law enforcement activity and certification procedures.

Reuters did not establish that the administration had adopted a coordinated plan to carry out those scenarios.

Senators Question Possible Ballot Seizures

In a separate October 16 letter, Democratic Sens. Padilla, Durbin and Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island requested assurances that federal authorities would not seize ballots or voting equipment before certification.

Their official Senate statement warned that removing election materials could interfere with vote counting and certification deadlines.

The letter acknowledged that FBI Director Patel had testified September 15 that the bureau would comply with applicable Justice Department policies.

Federal investigators can investigate election-related crimes, subject to legal requirements. However, the president does not have unrestricted authority to control state election administration or change certified vote totals.

There is no verified evidence that federal agents have been ordered to seize Michigan ballots.

What It Means for Michigan

Michigan voters will elect a governor, a U.S. senator and members of Congress on November 3.

The state’s election results are counted, reviewed and certified through established procedures involving local election officials and bipartisan canvassing boards.

Warner and other Democratic senators argue that federal election-related activities require greater congressional scrutiny.

The Trump administration maintains that its election-security initiatives are intended to prevent illegal voting and protect election integrity.

The unresolved question is how federal and state authorities would respond if disputes arose over election records or certification.

MITechNews will examine Michigan’s election-security safeguards and legal protections in a follow-up report.