Quick summary: With six weeks remaining before Michigan’s Nov. 3 election, Democrats lead the races for governor and secretary of state. But the contests for U.S. Senate and attorney general remain within the polling margin of error, making voter enthusiasm and turnout potentially decisive.

Michigan Democrats hold polling advantages in all four major statewide contests 42 days before Election Day, but the size of those leads ranges from substantial to statistically meaningless.

Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson has established the clearest advantage over Republican U.S. Rep. John James in the race for governor. Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist II also leads Republican Macomb County Clerk Anthony Forlini for secretary of state.

The other two contests remain unsettled. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holds a narrow polling lead over Republican Mike Rogers for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat. Democrat Eli Savit and Republican Doug Lloyd are effectively tied for attorney general, with nearly three in 10 voters undecided.

Michigan statewide races at a glance

  • Governor: Benson leads James by approximately 4 to 12 percentage points in recent polls.

  • U.S. Senate: El-Sayed holds an average advantage of roughly 2 to 3 points over Rogers.

  • Attorney general: Savit leads Lloyd 36.3% to 35%, with 28.8% undecided.

  • Secretary of state: Gilchrist leads Forlini approximately 42% to 36%, with about 22% undecided.

Benson holds strongest statewide position

Benson is in the best position of any Democrat seeking a major Michigan office.

The five-poll average compiled by 270toWin puts Benson at 50.2% and James at 42%. The RealClearPolitics average gives Benson a 6.8-point advantage and rates the race as leaning Democratic. No recent public poll has shown James ahead.

Recent results range from a four-point Benson advantage in a Detroit News/WDIV-TV survey to a 12-point lead in the Washington Post/Schar School poll.

James still has time to narrow the gap. But he must change the direction of a contest in which Benson is consistently approaching or exceeding 50% while he remains in the low 40s.

Former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan is no longer a factor. Duggan ended his independent campaign in May after concluding he no longer had a viable path to victory.

Michigan Senate race remains close

El-Sayed leads Rogers in most recent public polling, but his advantage is too small to make him a clear favorite.

An Emerson College poll found El-Sayed leading 48% to 46%, while the Washington Post/Schar School survey put El-Sayed ahead 48% to 45%.

RealClearPolitics’ polling average gives El-Sayed a 2.1-point advantage and rates the race a tossup.

Rogers has described El-Sayed as too dangerous for Michigan, citing the Democrat’s previous positions on policing and other issues. El-Sayed, in turn, portrays Rogers as a Trump-endorsed ally who has placed loyalty to the president above Michigan workers and consumers.

Some Republican advertising uses a clip in which El-Sayed described himself as dangerous to powerful corporations and Democratic Senate Leader Chuck Schumer—not as a danger to the public. Fact-checkers concluded that some ads removed his statement from its original context.

Rogers is also trying to attract independent voters and moderate Democrats who are uncomfortable with El-Sayed’s progressive positions, criticism of Israel and associations with controversial progressive figures.

El-Sayed is attempting to unite Democrats after a divisive primary. Former Vice President Kamala Harris is campaigning with him in Detroit Tuesday, including at a Black maternal-health roundtable, in an effort to increase support among Black voters.

The economy and Iran war are also reshaping the race. Rogers, who previously supported President Trump’s actions against Iran, is now calling for the war to end quickly as high gasoline and diesel prices create growing political problems for Republicans.

El-Sayed’s lead is real but fragile. A normal polling error, turnout difference or late movement among independent voters could change the result.

Attorney general contest is dead even

The race to replace term-limited Attorney General Dana Nessel may be Michigan’s least settled statewide contest.

A Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll conducted by the Glengariff Group found Savit, the Washtenaw County prosecutor, leading Lloyd, the Eaton County prosecutor, 36.3% to 35%.

The 1.3-point difference is well inside the survey’s four-point margin of error. More significantly, 28.8% of likely voters were undecided or declined to choose a candidate.

Savit has established a progressive criminal-justice record in Washtenaw County, while Lloyd emphasizes a more traditional law-and-order approach.

Savit appears to be running behind Benson and Gilchrist. That could reflect lower statewide name recognition, Republican criticism of his prosecutorial policies or the willingness of some voters to split their tickets when selecting Michigan’s top law-enforcement official.

The winner will influence Michigan policy involving consumer protection, data privacy, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, cannabis enforcement, environmental litigation and legal challenges involving the federal government.

Gilchrist leads secretary of state contest

Gilchrist holds a clearer advantage in the race to replace Benson as secretary of state.

The Glengariff poll found 42% of likely voters supporting Gilchrist and nearly 36% backing Forlini. About 22% remained undecided.

Among respondents who said they would definitely vote, Gilchrist’s advantage reportedly expanded to 46%–36%.

Gilchrist brings statewide name recognition after nearly eight years as lieutenant governor. Forlini can argue that he has direct experience administering elections and government records as Macomb County clerk.

The secretary of state oversees Michigan elections, campaign-finance disclosure, driver and vehicle services and state records. The office also plays a central role in election cybersecurity and certifying statewide results.

Gilchrist and Forlini are scheduled to debate Oct. 8 at the University of Michigan.

Democratic enthusiasm could decide close races

Polling measures voter preference, but elections are determined by who casts ballots. With the Senate and attorney general races separated by only a few points, turnout could matter as much as persuasion.

A September Marquette Law School national poll found 47% of Democrats were very enthusiastic about voting, compared with 32% of Republicans.

A Fox News poll produced a similar result: 64% of Democrats were extremely interested in the election compared with 53% of Republicans. Among voters who said they were certain to participate, Democrats led the national congressional ballot 54% to 43%.

Michigan-specific evidence about young voters is less definitive, but El-Sayed demonstrated an ability during the primary to motivate young progressives, including younger Black voters who did not necessarily follow older Democratic leaders.

That energy could help El-Sayed and Savit. Younger voters, however, historically participate at lower rates than older voters, particularly during midterm elections. Enthusiasm matters only if it produces registrations, absentee-ballot returns, early voting and Election Day turnout.

Republicans retain major financial and organizational resources. Strong GOP turnout in rural Michigan and Macomb County could offset greater Democratic enthusiasm in Detroit, Ann Arbor, East Lansing and other university communities.

Benson and Gilchrist hold the clearest advantages with 42 days remaining. But the Senate and attorney general contests could remain unsettled until Election Day—and the party that best converts voter emotion into ballots is likely to win them.

Coming Wednesday: MITechNews examines the Michigan congressional races that could help determine control of the U.S. House. Republican-held districts centered on Lansing and Macomb County are rated tossups, while competitive races in West and Mid-Michigan could expand the battlefield if Democratic momentum continues.