With 41 days remaining before the Nov. 3 election, two Republican-held Michigan congressional districts are rated tossups. Victories in both would give Democrats two of the three additional seats they need nationally to win control of the U.S. House.
LANSING – Michigan voters will help decide more than the state’s next governor, U.S. senator, attorney general and secretary of state. Several congressional contests could determine which party controls the House—and the direction of federal policy on taxes, energy, artificial intelligence, health care and the economy.
Republicans currently hold seven of Michigan’s 13 House seats, while Democrats hold six. National attention and campaign money are concentrating on two Republican-held districts centered on Lansing and Macomb County.
The competitiveness designations below are ratings from political analysts, not polling results. Independent district-level polling remains limited, and two publicly released surveys were sponsored by Democratic organizations.
Michigan’s Active Congressional Races
- 7th District: Republican Tom Barrett vs. Democrat Will Lawrence — Tossup
- 10th District: Republican Michael Bouchard Jr. vs. Democrat Christina Hines — Tossup
- 4th District: Republican Bill Huizenga vs. Democrat Sean McCann — Lean Republican
- 8th District: Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet vs. Republican Tom Smith — Likely Democratic
7th District: Data Centers Reshape A Tossup
Republican Rep. Tom Barrett is seeking a second term against Democrat Will Lawrence in the Lansing-area 7th District. Barrett captured the seat in 2024 with 50.3 percent of the vote, and the district has almost no partisan lean.
Lawrence, a co-founder of the Sunrise Movement and former Democratic Socialists of America member, has made opposition to large artificial-intelligence data centers a centerpiece of his campaign.
At least three hyperscale data centers have been proposed within the district. Lawrence is calling for state and federal moratoriums on new developments, arguing that they could increase electricity demand, raise utility bills, consume large quantities of water and remove farmland from production.
The issue has given Lawrence an opening with rural residents and even some Republican voters concerned about local control and the effect of large developments on their communities.
Barrett supports leaving individual projects to local governments and has backed restrictions on certain uses of AI, including autonomous battlefield weapons. He has not joined Lawrence in flatly opposing the proposed Mason data center.
Republicans are portraying Lawrence as too far left, pointing to his previous positions favoring defunding police, open borders and ending fossil-fuel use—positions from which he has since distanced himself.
That produces an unusual political contest: Barrett is running against Lawrence’s progressive record, while Lawrence is using technology development, farmland preservation and utility costs to assemble a coalition extending beyond traditional Democratic voters.
10th District: An Open Seat In Macomb County
Michigan’s other tossup is the open 10th District, which includes much of Macomb County, including Warren and Sterling Heights.
Republican Rep. John James gave up the seat to run for governor. The contest now pits Republican Michael Bouchard Jr., an Army veteran and son of Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard, against Democrat Christina Hines, a former prosecutor.
The district favored President Donald Trump by roughly seven percentage points in 2024, but James won his first election there in 2022 by less than one percentage point.
Hines is emphasizing the price of gasoline, groceries and health care. Bouchard is campaigning on public safety, border security and his military background.
An August survey sponsored by the Democratic House Majority PAC showed the candidates tied at 45 percent. Because it was commissioned by a Democratic organization, the result should be treated cautiously, although it supports the broader assessment that neither candidate has secured a clear advantage.
4th District: Huizenga Favored, But McCann Competitive
In West Michigan, Republican Rep. Bill Huizenga faces Democratic state Sen. Sean McCann in a district stretching from Holland and Ottawa County to Kalamazoo.
The district leans Republican, and Huizenga won reelection by approximately 12 percentage points in 2024. However, national handicappers have moved the contest into a more competitive category.
A Democratic-sponsored June poll showed McCann leading 48 percent to 45 percent. Its partisan sponsorship warrants caution, and Huizenga remains favored, but Democrats believe changing suburban voting patterns have placed the district within reach.
8th District: Democratic Incumbent Holds The Advantage
Democratic Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet is defending a Mid-Michigan district that includes Flint, Saginaw, Bay City and portions of Midland County.
Trump carried the district in 2024, but McDonald Rivet won her House race with 51.3 percent. She now faces retired General Motors engineer Tom Smith, who unexpectedly won the Republican primary after suspending his campaign and endorsing another candidate.
That unusual result caused forecasters to move the race toward McDonald Rivet. Republicans could still compete if a strong GOP turnout develops, but the Democratic incumbent enters the final six weeks as the clear favorite.
Michigan’s Other Nine Districts
The remaining congressional races are not considered seriously competitive. Republicans are strongly favored in the 1st, 2nd, 5th and 9th districts. Democrats hold similarly strong advantages in the 3rd, 6th, 11th, 12th and 13th districts.
That leaves the 7th and 10th as Michigan’s principal congressional battlegrounds, with the 4th and 8th serving as potential surprises.
Democratic enthusiasm—particularly among younger voters—could help Lawrence, Hines and other candidates down the ballot. But enthusiasm must translate into votes. Republicans retain dependable support among rural, working-class and Trump-aligned voters, especially in districts the president carried in 2024.
With control of the House potentially hinging on only a few seats, Michigan will provide an important test of whether concerns about household costs, technology development and the national political environment outweigh longstanding partisan loyalties.
