LANSING – Going into the final weekend before the November 7 election, the race for governor has started tightening more significantly as independent voters are switching more into the undecided column, the latest poll from the Detroit News and television stations WXYZ, WOOD, WILX and WJRT show.
The latest daily tracking poll shows that 49 percent of those questioned support Governor Jennifer Granholm, down three percentage points from the poll released on Thursday. Support for her Republican opponent, Dick DeVos, stood at 42 percent, down 1 percentage point from a day earlier. Undecided voters were now 9 percent of the total.
The survey was done of 600 active voters, with an error rate of 4 percent.
Ed Sarpolus of the Lansing firm EPIC/MRA said that while support is not increasing for DeVos overall, Granholm’s numbers are starting to slip as independent voters are starting to question their support.
Both candidates seemed to have locked up support among their respective bases, Sarpolus said, and conservative voters are starting now to resolve to vote for DeVos instead of sitting the election out.
If the trend continues up to election day, then the undecided voters would likely shift towards DeVos, Sarpolus said, and “we could be in for a long night.” Earlier in the week, a poll showed Granholm holding a 53-43 advantage.
Granholm is also weak among younger voters (those under 40) with 57 percent backing DeVos over concerns about jobs, Sarpolus said. Granholm does better among older voters who are also worried about issues such as health care.
Chris De Witt, spokesperson for Granholm, said: “We’re cautiously confident on the polling numbers.” Noting that his support does not seem to have picked up, he said, “I would much rather be in our position than his.”
Numbers indicating that support for Proposal 2006-2, the Michigan Civil Rights Initiative, is slipping could also help the governor since that indicates that African American voters are committing themselves to vote. De Witt said the strong the vote is in the African American community “the better it is for us.”
Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick is also running radio ads urging Detroit residents to vote, reminding them that in 1990 a low turnout in the city is considered largely to blame for the defeat of former Gov. James Blanchard.
But DeVos’s campaign is also sending flyers in Detroit urging voters to defeat the MCRI and then vote for DeVos.
John Truscott, spokesperson for DeVos, said that he had no comment on the poll, but that on the bus tour all indications are running very strong.
U.S. SENATE: There is no change in the numbers on the U.S. Senate race, with support for U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Lansing) holding at 51 percent and support for her Republican challenger, Oakland Sheriff Michael Bouchard, still at 38 percent with the rest undecided.
Despite an influx of cash and help for Bouchard from national Republicans, Sarpolus said he still remains an unknown factor for many voters. “His positives are about the same as his negatives,” Sarpolus said.
BALLOT ISSUES: Proposal 2006-5, the K-16 school financing proposal, now appears headed towards defeat on Tuesday but Proposal 2006-2, the MCRI is still up in the air.
The school finance proposal has seen its support now dip under 40 percent, with 38 percent of those questioned backing it while 43 percent oppose it. Undecided is now up to 19 percent.
For the proposal to have a shot at winning support would have to build to 45 percent over the weekend, Sarpolus said.
Support for Proposal 2006-2 is at 45 percent, with 40 percent opposed and the rest undecided. But the support has dropped three percentage points since Thursday, making the issue more in play.
Sarpolus said the surveys indicated that African American voters were now deciding it was important that they vote and that was having an effect on the support for the proposal.
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