ANN ARBOR – In November and December, when everyone moves inside in the United States, the COVID-19 death rate could climb to 5000 deaths a day and perhaps a total of 600,000 deaths by the end of 2020, predicts infectious disease expert Fred Brown.

Brown has been working with a number of states and countries to develop models for how the virus will spread. With everyone in the northern states spending less time out of doors, and folks in the southern states moving inside to beat the heat, the virus will claim hundreds of thousands of more victims by New Year’s Eve.

Do not schedule big plans for Thanksgiving or Christmas, Brown said. Flying to visit family or take vacations also are a bad idea for older Americans, people overweight and people with underlying health conditions, such as diabetes.