LANSING – The Michigan House Fiscal Agency had a mixed bag projection for 2010-11, predicting general fund revenues will see a slight uptick, but School Aid Fund dollars will come up short.

The fiscal agency’s report was released Wednesday in preparation for the Revenue Estimating Conference to be held Monday. Each legislative fiscal agency releases its estimation prior to the conference, while the Department of Treasury typically withholds its report until then.

In the HFA report, analysts say general fund revenues will increase by $44.3 million in 2010-11 compared to the current fiscal year, which is a .9 percent increase. School Aid Fund revenues are projected to come in just over $12 billion in 2010-11, which would represent a $215.2 million fall from the current fiscal year estimations.

That compares to the Senate Fiscal Agency, which predicted a $162.7 million drop in general fund revenue and another $58.8 million falloff in the School Aid Fund.

The HFA report notes the state’s economic future will continue hinging on the national economy, along with the strength of the domestic auto industry as it goes through restructuring and whatever happens with the credit situation.

Employment in Michigan is supposed to continue the decline since mid-2000, with 67,600 jobs lost in 2010, a 1.7 percent loss, and another 34,800 jobs lost in 2011, which represents a 0.9 percent drop. Job losses in Michigan are expected to continue until the fourth quarter of 2011.

Personal income is expected to rise, however. After falling by an estimated 1.9 percent in 2009, personal income is predicted to rise by 1.8 percent this year and by 1.4 percent in 2011. Inflation, however, is expected to rise in both the current calendar year and upcoming one.

The jobs situation as been bleak for the state, particularly in the manufacturing sector where state job losses accounted for 6.2 percent of all manufacturing job losses in the country over the past year.

Light motor vehicle sales, which fell in 2009, are expected to rise by more than one million units in 2010, coming to 12.4 million units in 2011.

Despite high unemployment, income tax revenues are projected to grow by slightly, $16.9 million, in 2010-11 compared to the current fiscal year.

Sales and use tax collections will increase slightly more than that, $18.8 million, while Michigan Business Tax and insurance tax collections should see a $23 million uptick.

The fiscal agency is recommending the revenue estimate for the current fiscal year be revised downward by $124.8 million for the School Aid Fund and by $58.9 million for the general fund.

The fiscal analysis projects a $109.2 million balance between the general fund, School Aid Fund and Budget Stabilization Fund. It also predicts state revenues will come in $8.2 billion below the constitutional spending limit in 2010-11.

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