WASHINGTON DC ? Future Shock author Alvin Toffler is at it again. He’s come out with a new book on the 40th anniversary of his best seller that now forecasts the trends that will change our lives over the next 40 years.
Toffler Associates? 40 for the Next 40 describes the forces of change that will yield significantly different landscapes in 2050.
Among its many findings, the report predicts that advances in water filtration will reduce global conflict. By solving the growing need for potable water, Toffler Associates foresees that water-starved nation-states will have compelling new reasons to lay down their arms.
Politically, the report expects that the number of women in national leadership positions will increase at an unprecedented rate. It also foresees ?hyper-empowered? individuals who will create a radically different future as they continue to gain access to knowledge, technology and finances previously attainable only by nation-states.
The report also pinpoints ?philanthro-capitalists? who are expected to eclipse national and multi-national organizations in influence on many global issues.
Dealing with the ?Obsoledge?
With regard to the economy, Toffler Associates expects that every chunk of knowledge will eventually become obsolete. The firm has coined the term ?obsoledge? to refer to knowledge?s extremely limited shelf life.
The report anticipates that mass production will be replaced by on-demand custom manufacturing of highly complex products and services. As a result, small, agile companies will be able to compete effectively with large manufacturers. It also anticipates that companies will increasingly turn away from creating products and instead host marketplaces and charge to connect consumers with producers.
Here are the specifics of what Toffler Associates predicts will transform the world:
CHANGES IN LEADERSHIP AROUND THE GLOBE WILL CAUSE CHURN IN RELATIONSHIPS AND OBJECTIVES
Just in the next three years, approximately 80 nations will hold presidential elections.
The number of women in national leadership positions will increase at an unprecedented rate.
Religious groups will push to get into governments around the world.
NATION-STATE POWER AROUND THE GLOBE WILL BE INCREASINGLY ?MULTI-POLAR? IN TERMS OF WHO WIELDS IT AND WHERE
The economies of Brazil, China and India will become less US and EU centric.
Foreign Direct Investments will shift toward developing economies.
THE GROWING POWER OF NON-STATE ACTORS WILL CREATE PERVASIVE CHALLENGES TO NATION-STATE POWER AND INFLUENCE
Private sector actors, NGOs, religious groups, ?hyper-empowered? individuals whose resources can exceed those of states, and a wide range of transnational networks ? both licit and illicit ? will create a radically different future.
The most pressing geopolitical threat will not be al Qaeda, but its franchises, the wider network-of-networks spawned and inspired by its ideology.
?Hyper-empowered? individuals and groups will continue to gain access to knowledge, technology and finances previously attainable only by nation-states.
THE NUMBER AND VARIETY OF NON-STATE ACTORS WILL RISE DRAMATICALLY
NGOs will be the fastest growing non-state actors, and will be key to governmental and industry strategies and solutions.
Governments? engagement with non-state actors will intensify, shaping issues from security to development.
THE GROWTH OF SMART POWER INSTRUMENTS REFLECTS THE COMPLEXITY OF SECURITY CHALLENGES
Military might will seldom be used in isolation again.
Challenges such as political instability, radicalism, economic have-nots, population migrations and mobility, plus widespread youth unemployment will make hard power insufficient by itself.
THE MIDDLE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO POSE ?WICKED? SECURITY ISSUES WITH GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS
The Middle East will witness accelerating reversion to a tangle of religions, sects and ethnicities.
The nature of the balance between Middle Eastern countries will be interrupted by new forms of instability.
PHILANTHRO-CAPITALISTS WILL INCREASINGLY WIELD INFLUENCE AND POWER ON A GLOBAL SCALE
Organizations such as the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation will eventually have more influence than national and multi-national organizations when it comes to education and disease eradication in third world nations.
The number of philanthro-capitalists will increase, due in no small part to Bill Gates? efforts to get billionaires to give away half their fortunes in their lifetimes.
ROGUE NATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GEO-POLITICAL WILDCARDS
The world stage will continue to have a very small number of players who act irrationally, such as North Korea and Iran, but they will have a significant impact on regional and global political issues.
A true test for political leaders will be in how they handle relationships with these nations, and to what extent they allow them to control geo-political agendas.
THE EMERGENCE OF OPEN NETWORKS FOR INNOVATION WILL ALLOW RAPID ACCESS TO SPECIALISTS ACROSS THE GLOBE
Open, collaborative innovation paradigms will enable companies to grow innovation capabilities beyond the limits of internal R&D teams.
Technologies will not be developed in-house. Successful organizations will become adept at integrating large problem-solver networks, linking ?answer seekers? with ?problem solvers? across the globe to rapidly harness the brainpower of international experts.
NEW PROCESSING AND STORAGE METHODS WILL FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGE HOW WE HANDLE INFORMATION
The world will enter the ?Petabyte Age,? where data saturation is the norm.
Widespread quantum computing will be a realistic possibility in the next 10-15 years, which could lead to either the rebirth ? or the end ? of encryption as we know it.
ADVANCEMENTS IN DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE DEFENSE, SECURITY AND SAFETY LANDSCAPE
Advances in biotechnology will lead to bio-implants that provide enhanced human performance.
Advances in ubiquitous sensors will result in chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and meteorological sensors in everyday person devices, such as cell phones.
Advances in ?wild card? technologies will lead to the ability to ?hack? people via neural, computer or other means to attack cognitive function neutral energy.
MASS PRODUCTION WILL INCREASINGLY BE REPLACED WITH ON-DEMAND, CUSTOM MANUFACTURING OF COMPLEX PRODUCTS AND SERVICES
Small, agile companies will continue to bring personal attention to customers, allowing them to compete effectively with large manufacturers.
Compact fabricators and raw material supplies will replace stockpiling repair parts for maintenance.
RAPID TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOW WE TARGET, MONITOR AND CURE DISEASES
Rapid biotechnology advances will lead to the ability to remotely trigger automatic production of immune response and medicines in the body via implants or other means.
Rapid technological advances in ubiquitous sensors will lead to the improved ability for bio-health monitoring.
MOLECULAR NANOTECHNOLOGY MANUFACTURING WILL HAVE AN IMMENSE IMPACT ON SOCIETY, BUSINESS AND TECHNOLOGY
Molecular manufacturing ? the ability to construct powerful, atomically precise products at an exponentially increasing pace ? will create disruptions, such as an unprecedented invasion of privacy resulting from cheaper, smaller, more capable and widely available surveillance devices.
VALUABLE INFORMATION RISKS COLLECTING ?CYBERDUST?
In some corners, including the military and intelligence agencies? collection of full motion video (FMV), data is being collected faster than it can be analyzed.
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