NEW YORK – The U.S. economy is in the midst of the worst part of the recession, with a recovery starting in the third quarter of 2009, according to economists polled in the latest Wall Street Journal survey.

On average the 54 economists surveyed expect gross domestic product to decline 3 percent at an annualized rate in this year’s fourth quarter. That comes after the Commerce Department reported a 0.3 percent drop in the third quarter.

Another negative reading is forecast for the first three months of next year with an essentially flat reading for the second quarter. Slow growth is seen for the second half of 2009, reaching 2.1 percent by the fourth quarter.

“By the third quarter of next year a recovery will be under way,” said John Lonski of Moody’s Investors Service, but he added that expansion won’t return to pre-crisis levels until 2010.

A number of economists surveyed gave a much more pessimistic forecast, due in part to pressure on consumers. Government action is one reason why some economists see the landscape eventually improving. Nearly two-thirds of respondents say the Treasury Department’s Troubled Asset Relief Program, which has taken stakes in major financial institutions, is helping markets.

Economists were supportive of more government stimulus. More than 80 percent favor a stimulus package in January, even if one is passed before the end of 2008. Some 34 percent of respondents said the top priority in such a package should be permanent tax cuts. On average, economists said the total size of government stimulus this year and early next should be more than $250 billion.

Economists saw other factors boosting the chances of recovery. President-elect Barack Obama needs to extend unemployment, work to stem foreclosures and use other plans to demonstrate that he’s doing something, they said.

Confidence is in short supply these days. In October, the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence posted the lowest reading since the survey began in 1967. Consumer spending also has suffered, recording a 0.3 percent decline in September.

If the economists’ average forecast were to materialize, the depth of the downturn would be about on par with the 1990 recession, but it wouldn’t reach the low levels seen in the early 1980s or 1970s.

The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of 55 economists throughout the year. Broad surveys on more than 10 major economic indicators are conducted every month. Once a year, economists are ranked on how well their forecasts have fared.

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