DETROIT — Michigan’s largest employers are growing more cautious about the economy, but they’re not yet hitting the brakes on hiring, capital investments or their long-term commitment to the state.
A new second-quarter survey from Business Leaders For Michigan found CEO optimism declined sharply compared with the previous quarter as executives weighed continuing uncertainty surrounding global markets, trade policies and geopolitical tensions. Yet despite those concerns, most business leaders say they still expect their own companies to remain stable over the next six months.
The survey offers a snapshot of the mindset among executives leading many of Michigan’s largest employers—and suggests businesses are preparing for slower economic growth rather than an outright downturn.
Nearly 60 percent of surveyed CEOs now expect Michigan’s economy to weaken during the next six months, up from 35 percent in the first quarter.
Views of the national economy followed a similar pattern. Fifty-seven percent expect U.S. economic conditions to deteriorate, compared with 32 percent three months earlier.
Even so, executives remain considerably less pessimistic than they were a year ago, when roughly eight in ten CEOs expected both the Michigan and U.S. economies to decline.
Michigan CEO Confidence by the Numbers
| Measure | Q2 2026 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expect Michigan economy to decline | 60% | 35% | 87% |
| Expect U.S. economy to decline | 57% | 32% | 81% |
| CEOs maintaining or increasing capital spending | Majority | Majority | Higher than last year |
| CEOs maintaining Michigan employment | More than 50% | Similar | Stronger than last year |
| CEOs maintaining Michigan real estate footprint | About 80% | About 80% | Stable |
Companies Staying the Course
While confidence in the broader economy has softened, CEOs appear far more optimistic about their own businesses.
Most executives expect capital spending to remain steady or increase over the next six months, while relatively few anticipate reducing investment compared with a year ago.
Employment plans also remain resilient.
More CEOs expect to increase Michigan hiring than during the same period last year, while more than half anticipate keeping employment levels unchanged.
Perhaps most notably, approximately eight in ten CEOs expect no change in their Michigan real estate footprint, suggesting the state’s largest companies continue viewing Michigan as a long-term base for operations despite economic uncertainty.
Taken together, the survey suggests executives are preparing for a more challenging business environment without abandoning expansion plans.
Global Events Continue to Shape Expectations
Business Leaders For Michigan noted that CEO sentiment shifted as international events evolved.
The first-quarter survey was completed before renewed military conflict involving Iran, while the second-quarter survey was conducted in May following a ceasefire but amid continued concerns over global trade, inflation, supply chains and international instability.
Those issues are especially significant for Michigan, whose economy remains heavily dependent on automotive manufacturing, advanced manufacturing and international exports.
Over the past several months, businesses have also been navigating uncertainty surrounding tariffs, supply chain costs, energy prices and slowing consumer demand.
Michigan Can’t Control Global Markets
Business Leaders For Michigan President and CEO Jeff Donofrio said the changing outlook underscores the importance of focusing on issues the state can influence directly.
“When optimism swings quarter to quarter on forces well beyond our borders, it’s a reminder that Michigan’s job is to control what it can control,” Donofrio said.
He said that means improving education, expanding workforce development, making it easier for businesses to invest and grow, and creating an economy that attracts both companies and talent.
Business Leaders For Michigan’s long-term economic strategy, known as Michigan in a New Era, centers on three priorities:
- Improving education and workforce development.
- Making Michigan easier for businesses to build and grow.
- Expanding the state’s long-term economic competitiveness.
Why It Matters
The survey reflects a familiar pattern emerging across Michigan’s economy.
Business leaders increasingly expect slower economic growth, but they are not yet responding with widespread layoffs or major reductions in investment.
That aligns with several recent Michigan indicators showing employers remain cautious but continue hiring in many sectors while investing heavily in artificial intelligence, mobility, advanced manufacturing and digital infrastructure.
Whether that resilience continues through the remainder of 2026 will likely depend on inflation, interest rates, trade policy and global stability—all factors largely outside Michigan’s control.
