ANN ARBOR – The Detroit area could lose more jobs in 2009 than it has during the previous decade, but the economy could start to improve staring in 2010, two economists from the University of Michigan said Friday.
That doesn’t mean the region will see job growth next year, said George Fulton and Donald Grimes, but job losses should slow. And in 2011, the region could see a tiny bit of job growth.
In 2009, the region is expected to lose 132,000 jobs, the two said. In 2010, the region may lose 43,000 jobs.
Then in 2011 the economists are predicting very slight, job growth of 600 jobs in the region.
Any growth, even tiny growth, will be a major improvement for the region, which has lost an average of 45,000 jobs a year since 2000, Fulton said.
During the first quarter of this year, the Detroit region lost jobs at an annual rate of 13.3 percent, they said. But the fourth quarter of 2011, the area could see job growth of 2.5 percent annually.
Even that little bit of good news won’t mean much in terms of the unemployment rate, they said. The Detroit region should average 16 percent joblessness in 2009 and then 17 percent and higher for both 2010 and 2011.
Leading the way in terms of job growth, when it occurs, will be the health care industry, they said.
They did not hold hope for significant job growth in the auto sector, saying those jobs are effectively gone. But a restructured, stronger industry will help the local economy rebound, they said.
For major growth, however, the region has to attract higher education companies and workers, they said.
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