LANSING – Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney was the favorite to win the Michigan Republican presidential primary next month before last night’s Iowa caucuses, and his eight-vote victory there over former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum appeared to do little to change that dynamic.

There are still seven states that will hold primaries and caucuses between now and February 28, when Michigan and Arizona will hold their primaries. And much could change between now and then. But Romney’s strength here – a Michigan native who won the 2008 primary and enjoys a substantial network of supporters – and the campaign calendar that puts other states ahead in the pecking order seems to have discouraged other candidates from challenging him.

“It’s going to be tough for anybody to break into Michigan given what else is out there,” said Tom Shields, a Republican consultant and president of Marketing Resource Group. “If you don’t have the funds, then you have to pick and choose which states you can fairly compete with Romney in. Michigan probably falls way down the list.”

Santorum’s late surge propelled him to the virtual tie with Romney in Iowa – both will get the same number of delegates under changes to Republican rules that did away with the previous tradition of awarding delegates on a winner-take-all basis. He has campaigned heavily in New Hampshire, and also has an office in South Carolina.

But he has little to no presence in Michigan. Several top Republican strategists said Wednesday they were aware of no organized campaign for Santorum here. There is a Facebook page, Michigan for Rick Santorum, but the person running it did not return a message seeking comment.

“He had a one-state campaign,” Shields said of Santorum. “He needs to put together a campaign in another dozen states pretty quick. How do you do that?”

Other candidates have made at least a minimal effort in Michigan. Texas Governor Rick Perry spoke to the Republican Party’s Mackinac Island meeting and has the endorsement of U.S. Rep. Candice Miller (R-Harrison Township), but his campaign has been limping for weeks and he just finished a disappointing fifth in Iowa. Business executive Herman Cain visited several Michigan cities before his campaign imploded and he bowed out.

Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who finished a distant fourth in Iowa, is hoping to mount a comeback. He also has yet to establish any kind of a formal Michigan organization.

Attorney General Bill Schuette, chair of Romney’s campaign in Michigan, said Romney’s Iowa win was a sign of how strong a candidate he is.

“Iowa was a big win for Mitt Romney,” he said. “There were some candidates who spent hundreds of days in Iowa. Mitt Romney spent maybe a half-dozen and wins the contest. That’s a big victory.”

Schuette declined to discuss why the other candidates seem to have mostly ignored Michigan at this point. Mr. Romney has assembled strong campaigns in every state, including Michigan, he said. Just as past Republican nominees like Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush and John McCain benefited from having run for the nomination once before, so is Romney, Schuette said.

“Mitt Romney’s got the ground troops across the country and the finance network that it takes to win in November,” he said.

Santorum, Gingrich, Perry and other Republicans have criticized Romney as an inauthentic conservative, but Schuette rejected that criticism.

“He is conservative,” he said. “He has the experience in the private sector, and has put together the organization. Republican activists want to, I believe, have the nominee be in the strongest position to win and beat Barack Obama in November.”

Had Mr. Romney severely faltered in Iowa, that might have opened the door in Michigan. But that did not occur. Now the contest shifts to New Hampshire and its Tuesday primary where Romney is an overwhelming favorite.

Then the contest moves to South Carolina, and that could well determine whether Romney develops the type of momentum that could render Michigan irrelevant or at least make the state interesting.

The change to proportional awarding of delegates means if Santorum, Gingrich or another candidate emerges to legitimately compete with Romney, that candidate might want to mount at least a serviceable campaign in Michigan to avoid letting Romney clean up the bulk of the state’s 30 nominating delegates (the state originally had 59, but was penalized for moving its primary before March 6).

One major mistake by then-Sen. Hillary Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primary battle with then-Sen. Barack Obama was that her campaign ignored a number of smaller states, allowing Obama to run up huge victory margins and grab more delegates.

Shields said that the proportional awarding of delegates means the nominating contest will be far from over, at least mathematically, when the Michigan primary arrives.

This story was provided by Gongwer News Service. To subscribe, click on Gongwer.Com

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