Boulder, Colo. – A new report from Guidehouse Insights explores the market and revenues for medium duty and heavy duty trucks powered by hydrogen internal combustion engines (H2-ICE).

The drive to decarbonize the medium and heavy duty (MHD) truck industry has led to the development of numerous driveline options to replace conventional diesel internal combustion engines (D-ICE). While the greatest focus in both market interest and OEM R&D budgets has been on battery electric vehicles (BEVs), advocates have also promoted hydrogen as a means of decarbonization.

According to a new report from Guidehouse Insights, the global market for heavy duty trucks powered by H2-ICE drivelines will reach 41,081 units by 2034. This segment, which is expected to experience a 44.5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the ten-year period, includes the over-the-road (OTR), distribution and collection and delivery (distribution/C&D), harsh duty, and vocational segments.

“While hydrogen as an emissions reduction pathway has been mainly predicated on fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), the increasing interest in using hydrogen to power adapted ICE engines for MHDs could have an effect on all stakeholders in the commercial vehicle value chain, shippers, regulators, and investors,” says Oliver Dixon, senior research analyst with Guidehouse Insights. “The key takeaway from this report is the relative value of reduced emissions and zero emissions applies to H2-ICE technology as well as to the entire transportation and mobility sector.”

Removing 50% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions may not be as valuable as removing 90%, but making smaller reductions in the short term, with reduced complexity and cost, more than makes up for removing a higher percentage later. Although the emissions debate has become a binary discussion, a smaller action is better than none and could lead to more reductions, according to the report.

The report, Hydrogen Internal Combustion Engines and the Medium and Heavy Duty Truck Market, looks at the global market for hydrogen-ICE (H2-ICE) MHD trucks during the forecast period 2025-2034. It provides forecasts for the overall market, segmented by units and revenue, and unit sales forecasts segmented by vehicle size (medium duty and heavy duty) and task (long-haul, distribution, harsh duty, and vocational).

An executive summary of the report is available for free download on the Guidehouse Insights website.