ANN ARBOR – Inflation has cooled, but Michigan grocery prices haven’t come down. A January 2025 to January 2026 comparison shows why food costs still define affordability.

Inflation Is Cooling — But Grocery Bills Didn’t Go Back Down

Inflation is no longer surging. But for many Michigan families, affordability still feels out of reach — especially at the grocery store.

National inflation slowed through 2025, and food price increases eased compared with the post-pandemic spike. Yet prices never meaningfully returned to where they were. Instead, they reset higher — and stayed there.

Food has become the most powerful signal of that disconnect. It’s unavoidable, purchased several times a week, and impossible to delay. When grocery bills remain elevated, consumers don’t experience “cooling inflation.” They experience pressure.

Prices Reset, Not Recovered

Economists measure inflation as a rate of change. Consumers experience it as the price they pay today.

By that standard, grocery prices in January 2026 are still higher than they were in January 2025 — and far higher than before the pandemic. Even modest year-over-year increases now land on top of already elevated prices, compounding the burden.

In Michigan, regional CPI data shows food-at-home prices continued rising through 2025, roughly in line with national trends of about 2–3% higher year over year by late 2025.

That sounds manageable — until it shows up every week.

Michigan Food Prices: January 2025 vs. January 2026

Looking at food on a weekly basis, rather than monthly averages, makes affordability real.

Estimated weekly food spending (Michigan):

  • January 2025: ~$315 per week

  • January 2026: ~$330 per week

That’s an increase of about $15 per week, or nearly $800 per year, for the average household — without any dramatic price spike.

The increase isn’t evenly split. Grocery prices rose modestly. Restaurant and takeout costs climbed faster.

Chart: Weekly Food Costs in Michigan (2026)

What’s Driving Grocery Costs Higher

Some categories matter more because they dominate Michigan shopping carts.

Meat remains the biggest pressure point.
Beef prices rose sharply over the past year due to tighter cattle supplies and higher production costs. For families buying meat weekly, even small per-pound increases translate into real budget strain.

Coffee quietly became expensive.
Coffee and beverage prices rose far faster than overall food inflation, driven by climate impacts on crops, global supply disruptions, and transportation costs. What once felt like a minor indulgence is now a recurring expense.

Staples never fully came back down.
Eggs, dairy, bread, and packaged foods spiked earlier in the inflation cycle and largely stayed elevated. Shrinkflation — smaller packages at the same price — continues to raise the cost per unit without drawing attention.

The result is a grocery bill that feels heavy even when nothing looks outrageous.

Then vs. Now: A Family of Four Grocery Receipt

Same family. Same cart. One year apart.

Why It Still Feels Worse Than the Data Says

Affordability isn’t just about averages. It’s about frequency.

Grocery prices confront consumers every few days. Unlike rent or insurance, there’s no buffer. Even households with stable incomes report changing behavior — switching brands, buying less meat, and eating out less often.

When higher-income households feel pressure, it signals a broader shift. Inflation may be easing on paper, but everyday life hasn’t caught up.

What to Watch in 2026

Grocery inflation may cool further, but relief will be uneven.

Restaurant prices are expected to continue rising due to labor, rent, and operating costs. Certain grocery categories — especially meat and coffee — remain vulnerable to supply disruptions.

For Michigan families, that means fewer shocks — but little reason to expect prices to roll back.

The affordability debate is no longer about inflation alone. It’s about whether prices, wages, and expectations realign — or whether high food costs become the permanent backdrop of daily life.