Survey: West Michigan Economy Losing Momentum, Mirroring Economic Headwinds Facing Michigan, US

ALLENDALE — As 2025 draws to a close, West Michigan’s economy is losing momentum, mirroring broader economic headwinds facing Michigan and much of the United States, according to new data from Grand Valley State University.

Brian Long, director of supply chain management research at Grand Valley’s Seidman College of Business, said his latest monthly survey of West Michigan purchasing managers points to a noticeable softening in the region’s industrial economy, particularly in manufacturing and supply-chain activity.

“Adding up our survey data for November for the West Michigan industrial economy, it was kind of disappointing to see a sharp drop in new orders, which we also call our index of business improvement,” Long said. “Our production index also took a sharp downturn, as did several of our other measures.”

While the U.S. economy is slowing unevenly, Michigan—and West Michigan in particular—are feeling the effects sooner and more sharply due to heavy reliance on manufacturing, global trade, and capital investment. If national demand stabilizes in 2026, West Michigan could rebound quickly—but continued weakness in new orders would deepen the gap.

While one month does not establish a long-term trend, Long said the breadth of declines across multiple indicators warrants close monitoring heading into 2026.

The slowdown in West Michigan comes as Michigan’s broader economy struggles relative to the rest of the country. The state’s unemployment rate currently ranks third highest in the nation, behind only California and Nevada, reflecting continued weakness in manufacturing-heavy regions and slower job growth than the national average.

Nationally, the U.S. economy has shown mixed signals in recent months. Consumer spending and services activity remain relatively resilient, but manufacturing output, business investment, and new orders have cooled, particularly in sectors sensitive to interest rates, global trade, and tariffs. Those pressures appear to be hitting West Michigan’s export- and supply-chain-oriented firms harder than some other regions.

Long said uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade policy is weighing heavily on local manufacturers, many of which rely on imported raw materials or components.

“The navigation of all these tariffs is taking a toll on some of our people, as is the news cycle, which tends to be somewhat negative right now,” Long said. “For firms that have to import a lot of their production materials, they are getting squeezed in both directions. Costs are rising, and they often can’t get the seller to pick up even part of the tab.”

West Michigan’s November survey results underscore that pressure:

• New orders index (business improvement): -20, down from -4 in October

• Production index (output): -23, down from +4

• Employment index: -22, down from +2

• Lead times index: +4, up from -4

Despite the near-term weakness, Long noted that West Michigan remains better positioned than some parts of the state due to its diversified manufacturing base, logistics infrastructure, and relatively strong small-business ecosystem. However, he cautioned that continued declines in new orders and employment could signal broader trouble if conditions fail to improve in early 2026.

More details on the survey, along with historical data, are available on the Seidman College of Business website.

2026 Outlook

Looking ahead to 2026, economists expect West Michigan’s economy to remain under pressure in the near term, with manufacturing and supply-chain firms continuing to feel the effects of elevated interest rates, uncertain trade policy, and cautious customer demand. While a modest national slowdown could ease inflation and borrowing costs later in the year, much will depend on whether new orders rebound and global trade conditions stabilize. Long said West Michigan’s diversified industrial base and strong logistics sector provide a buffer, but sustained declines in employment and production would signal a deeper regional downturn if demand does not recover by mid-2026.