LANSING – With six weeks left to the election, with the first presidential debate taking place on Friday and with the nation battered by an ongoing series of bad economic factors, a series of polls released Tuesday showed how volatile the presidential race is in Michigan and nationwide. Democratic Presidential Candidate Barack Obama was shown leading in Michigan in one poll, Republican Presidential Candidate John McCain was shown leading in a second, and a study that estimates potential Electoral College outcomes showed that if the election were held on Tuesday it would end up a tie.
The United States has not faced a tie in the Electoral College since the 19th Century. In such a case the presidential election is thrown to the U.S. House of Representatives (in which each state casts one vote, but the vote would likely be based on the party dominating the delegation. Currently, that favors Democrats who have an advantage in 27 state delegations) while the election for the vice president is thrown to the U.S. Senate.
Given the right circumstances, that could mean Obama could become president and Alaska Governor Sarah Palin become vice president.
On Tuesday, Quinnipiac University of Connecticut released the latest iteration of their series of polls, done for the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post, of four battleground states: Michigan, Colorado, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
In each state, Obama led McCain. Obama held the biggest lead in Wisconsin, 49 percent to 42 percent. In Michigan and Colorado Obama had a 4 percentage point lead in presidential preference.
In Michigan, the poll, done of 1,364 likely voters, showed Obama leading McCain in voter preference 48 percent to 44 percent. The poll was conducted from September 14-21 (during the height of the national financial meltdown) and has a margin of error of 2.7 percent.
In Michigan, Obama was favored by women 52 percent to 40 percent, McCain was favored by men, 49 percent to 44 percent. White voters support McCain 51 percent to 41 percent, while black voters support Obama 93 percent to 5 percent. Somewhat surprisingly, Obama leads among all age groups.
The Quinnipiac poll showed that Obama held a large lead, 55 percent to 35 percent, with those who thought the economy was the most important issue.
But a poll conducted by Marketing Resource Group of Lansing showed that McCain was favored by 46 percent of those polled compared to 43 percent for Obama.
That poll was conducted of 600 likely voters from September 15-19 and has an error rate of 4.1 percent.
The poll showed while both candidates fare strongly with their base voters, McCain was leading among independent voters with a 45 percent to 37 percent split.
Like the Quinnipiac poll, the MRG poll shows Obama polling strongest with women and black voters. The MRG poll shows him doing well in the Detroit area and with younger voters.
Also like Quinnipiac, the MRG poll showed McCain doing better with men. It also shows him doing well with voters in West Michigan and the Flint/Saginaw/Bay City area.
Adding to the intrigue of the presidential race are the latest daily results of the Outlook by the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University, which shows that based on current poll results in each state the election could end up a tie in the Electoral College.
The Outlook shows that both candidates could end up with 269 Electoral College votes. It takes 270 votes to win the presidency.
According to the Outlook, which examines the latest opinion polls in each state and assesses which are battleground states based on the split and the number of undecided voters, McCain could count on 225 electoral votes from states likely to vote his way with another 44 votes from battleground states. Obama could win 210 likely electoral votes with 59 votes from battleground states.
The 12th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution dictates what is to happen in such cases. And the election for president would go to the U.S. House. But each state gets one vote and that vote would theoretically be determined by the partisan split in the state’s delegation. Democrats control 27 state delegations, Republicans control 21 and two states – Arizona and Kansas – have split delegations.
The delegations voting would be the current delegations, not those chosen at the November 4 election.
The U.S. Senate decides who would be vice president and that is done by a majority of the members. Should Connecticut independent-Democrat Joe Lieberman vote for Palin that would leave a 50-50 split and presumably Vice President Dick Cheney would split the tie and vote for Palin.
IPPSR Director, and former state Treasurer, Doug Roberts said the possibility of an electoral college tie is “the story of the election.”
The Outlook shows Michigan still a battleground state leaning towards Obama (which could mean the electoral votes go to Obama, but the congressional delegation, now split nine Republicans and six Democrats, could go for McCain).
The Outlook shows a total of 10 battleground states in the latest poll.
This story was provided by Gongwer News Service. To subscribe, click on Gongwer.Com
a>>
