LANSING – A new poll shows that Attorney General Mike Cox’s television advertisements attacking U.S. Rep. Peter Hoekstra’s record on federal spending appear to have eliminated Hoekstra’s longstanding lead in the Republican primary and instead created a four-way statistical tie among four candidates, including Ann Arbor Venture Capitalist Rick Snyder.

The survey, conducted by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling firm based in Raleigh, North Carolina, also indicated a dead heat on the Democratic side with Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero taking 26 percent to 23 percent for House Speaker Andy Dillon. The error margin is plus or minus 5.5 percentage points.

But it is the numbers on the Republican side that likely will grab the most attention among political observers. For months, Hoekstra in a variety of polls has received the support of about 27 percent of likely Republican voters. But three weeks ago, Cox launched a television advertising assault targeting Hoekstra’s spending record.

Hoekstra responded with an advertisement of his own, but it appears to have barely aired and been an extremely small buy. Meanwhile, business executive Snyder jumped into the fray with an advertisement that essentially repeated all of Cox’s criticism of Hoekstra without Snyder directly saying it and then blasted Cox as a typical politician for fostering bickering.

Indeed, a report released by the independent Michigan Campaign Finance Network showed Hoekstra’s “response” amounted to just $5,470 – essentially a miniscule buy designed more to get play in the news media. Meanwhile, Snyder has spent $1.3 million on his “One Tough Nerd” ads and Mr. Cox’s barrage totals $528,000. Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard has spent $49,000.

The poll showed Snyder at 20 percent, Hoekstra at 19 percent, Cox at 17 percent, Bouchard at 15 percent and Sen. Tom George at 9 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus 5.1 percentage points, meaning Snyder, Hoekstra, Cox and Bouchard are within the poll’s margin of error.

The survey showed Hoekstra had the strongest favorable-unfavorable numbers with 43 percent saying they had a favorable opinion of him to 17 percent unfavorable. Snyder was second at 34-10, Cox was third at 41-24, Bouchard was fourth at 31-15 and George was fifth with just 7 percent saying they had a favorable opinion to 10 percent unfavorable.

Democratic voter attitudes toward their candidates remain incredibly loose for a campaign that is two months from the primary. Neither candidate appears to be generating much excitement with both having negative ratings higher than their positive ratings. Some 13 percent of Democratic voters said they had a favorable opinion of Bernero to 14 percent unfavorable. Meanwhile, 14 percent said they had a favorable opinion of Dillon to 19 percent unfavorable.

Some of Bernero’s small lead seemed to come from a small gender gap. While the two were essentially tied among women voters, Bernero led 31-24 among men.

Both polls were conducted May 25-27. The Republican survey was among 377 Republican primary voters while the Democratic survey was among 314 Democratic primary voters.

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN: Meanwhile, a separate poll shows Dillon with a 23-9 lead over Bernero in the pivotal metro Detroit counties of Macomb, Oakland and Wayne. The same survey shows a four-way statistical tie among the five Republicans for the lead in this important region. Among the Republicans, Cox had 19 percent, Bouchard 18 percent, Hoekstra 16 percent and Snyder 15 percent.

The poll was commissioned by the Perricone Group, Rossman Group and Denno Noor Polling. It was conducted by Denno Noor among 600 general election voters between May 22-24 and has an error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

This story was provided by Gongwer News Service. To subscribe, click on Gongwer.Com

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