SOUTHFIELD – The outlook for U.S. light
vehicle sales is beginning to improve, according to a recent R. L. Polk &
Co. analysis. Polk estimates new light vehicle sales in 2010 will be up 9.6
percent over 2009, to 11.2 million units, with third quarter 2010 sales
estimated to be the strongest, at an anticipated 28 percent of the annual
total.
The bottoming out of the housing market, a reversal in the decline of
home prices, expansion in manufacturing, and improved consumer sentiment
indicate positive signs the economic recovery is well underway.
September 2009 light vehicle sales declined to 745,000 new units from
robust August sales of 1.26 million units in conjunction with the Cash for
Clunkers program. Once the program ended, inventories were down and
subsequently, showroom traffic declined. Overall, Polk forecasts that the
program will generate a positive net impact of 350,400 additional vehicles
sold in 2009. Of the total reported 690,000 new buyers during the program’s
timeframe, Polk analysis suggests 336,000 would have bought in 2009
regardless of the incentive program.
Year-end light vehicle sales for 2009 are projected to be down 23
percent over 2008.
“We are confident the worst is behind us,” said Dave Goebel, North
American forecast consultant for Polk. “We also believe the Cash for
Clunkers program will have little to no impact on 2010 sales, because the
overall economic outlook has improved since earlier this year and this
serves automakers well as they bring new models into their showrooms.”
Based on the improving economic conditions and consumer sentiment, Polk
increased its 2010 light vehicle sales forecast to 11.2 million units from
10.8 million previously forecast.
For more information, click on Polk.Com
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