LANSING – The now rocking political waters that Iowa voters have roiled have created new momentum and importance to Michigan’s presidential primary, scheduled for January 15, with some analysts saying it could be the key to deciding who at least the Republican presidential nominee is. Even with most Democratic presidential candidates off the ballot, the suddenly more precarious position of New York U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton could be helped or hurt by the results of the primary.

National commentator Bill Kristol said on WJR Radio Friday that Michigan was “ground zero” in determining the Republican nominee. Appearances by some of the top candidates for the GOP in the state have already been announced and new advertising is expected.

And on the Democratic side, even though Ms. Clinton is the only major name on the ballot, the possibility that she could struggle to overcome a surge by “uncommitted” has suddenly become very real.

It is stunning change of events for Michigan’s primary, which as recently as a few days ago was being derided by some as an essentially meaningless, “half-primary” that would waste millions of state dollars. At this moment it also seems to validate the drive of state Democratic Chair Mark Brewer and Republican Chair Saul Anuzis to establish an early presidential primary to challenge the dominance that Iowa and New Hampshire has had in selecting presidential candidates.

Officials also hope that January 15 will put to rest some of the odd-man-out history Michigan has had in its history of primaries and caucuses (1972 Democratic winner in Michigan George Wallace, party nominee George McGovern; 1980 GOP winner George H.W. Bush, nominee Ronald Reagan; 1988 Democratic caucus winner Jesse Jackson, nominee Michael Dukakis; 1988 GOP caucus winner Pat Robertson, nominee Bush; 2000 GOP primary winner John McCain, nominee George W. Bush) by helping sort out the major party candidates.

“On the Republican side, it certainly could,” said Bill Rustem of Public Sector Consultants of the chance that Michigan could be a deciding factor in the nomination. And if Illinois Sen. Barack Obama should win again in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, the state could even be a deciding factor for Ms. Clinton’s candidacy, he said.

New Hampshire’s primary now becomes the next focus of presidential politics. Obama won a major Democratic victory in Iowa followed by former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards and Ms. Clinton and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee won big in the Hawkeye state over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, with McCain narrowly winning third place.

In New Hampshire McCain is viewed by many as the favorite (he won there in 2000), while Obama and Clinton are expected to wage a major fight to win in the Granite state.

Washington Post columnist David Broder said the Iowa results have upset the political status quo “as never before.”

Bill Nowling, spokesperson for the Michigan Republican Party, said the state’s position in the presidential sweepstakes is falling into line with what party officials had hoped.

Compared to largely white, more rural Iowa and New Hampshire, Michigan is a state more like the rest of the U.S., Mr. Nowling said, more ethnically diverse and more economically diverse. It is also large enough that successful candidates will have to rely more on media campaigning than on personal appearances, he said.

“Michigan has kind of pole-vaulted into major importance,” Nowling said.

In their after-caucus comments in Iowa, both Romney and Clinton talked about the importance of Michigan in maintaining or regaining momentum to win the nomination.

Jason Moon, spokesperson for the Michigan Democratic Party, said he anticipated the enthusiasm Iowa Democrats showed in the caucus (Democrats outnumbered Republicans caucusing by better than two-to-one) will be largely borne out in Michigan because of the enthusiasm for this campaign.

McCain and Romney are already planning a number of visits to the state before the January 15. Those two are also the only Republicans who have run ads.

A top aide to U.S. Rep. Candice Miller (R-Mt. Clemens), the state’s top supporter of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, said he too plans to be in the state before the primary. Whether Mr. Giuliani plans to run advertising in Michigan is less certain, since his strategy is focused more on winning later, more-delegate rich states starting with Florida on January 29, said Jamie Roe, Ms. Miller’s chief of staff.

And a supporter of Huckabee, who has a very small formal structure in the state, said he expected Huckabee to come into Michigan after the New Hampshire primary. Huckabee in his comments seems to have put more emphasis on the importance of the South Carolina primary.

Tom McMillin was not worried about the lack of a formal staff, however, saying that Hucakbee’s staff meets “every Sunday in a place called church,” and that even without major staff and finances the momentum he is enjoying out of Iowa could lead him to victory on January 15.

In recent opinion polls, Huckabee has been polling nearly even with Romney, a Michigan native and son of former Governor George Romney, among likely Michigan Republican voters.

All observers contacted believe Romney must win in Michigan if he is to keep his candidacy alive, especially if he does not win in New Hampshire.

“Romney has got to do well here or he is not going to make it,” Rustem said.

On the Democratic side, while it is unlikely Clinton would lose to “uncommitted,” if she does not win in New Hampshire that scenario is not out of the realm of possibility.

She was the only top Democrat to leave her name on the Michigan ballot (she has been endorsed by Governor Jennifer Granholm, Lt. Governor John Cherry and U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Lansing)) as the others stayed off the ballot in deference to the national party and New Hampshire officials.

Though Clinton is on the ballot, she had said she would not campaign in Michigan for the primary. But if she does not win in New Hampshire most observers expect to see her in the state leading up to January 15.

In Internet broadcasts Brewer had urged Democrats supporting Obama, Edwards and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson to vote for the uncommitted line. Until this week, a number of Democrats had said they planned to vote in the Republican primary as a protest (or to cause mischief) but the changing dynamics of the race now make it more likely they will vote uncommitted. Some have even raised the possibility that some of the other candidates will campaign in the state urging a vote for “uncommitted.”

A loss to “uncommitted” could put the Clinton campaign into a tailspin, some have said. Presuming she does win, most say she must generate at least 50 percent of the vote.

According to Kelly Chesney, spokesperson for the Department of State, no candidates have filed by Friday’s deadline to indicate they want to be considered a write-in candidate, so no write-in votes will be counted. That means if a supporter of Obama, Edwards or Richardson want to have some impact they will have to vote uncommitted.

Among the other Democrats still running for president, former Alaska Governor Mike Gravel and Ohio U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich is on the Michigan ballot. Kucinich has said he will campaign in Michigan.

This story was provided by Gongwer News Service. To subscribe, click on Gongwer.Com

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