LANSING – More people are voting by absentee ballot this year in Michigan than in the last gubernatorial race in 2002, according to state and local officials. But reaction is mixed about how or even if more absentee voters will affect the outcome of next week’s election.

In 11 cities and townships randomly chosen by Gongwer News Service, all but one reported increases in their absentee voter mailings, including in Lansing which as of Wednesday had seen a nearly 40 percent increase in ballot mailings and in Detroit, which so far had 4,000 more absentee voters, bringing the mid-week total to nearly 50,400.

The Secretary of State’s office and political experts said there are more mailed ballots, which they said will most likely result in more voters overall, with the SOS predicting some 3.4 million people will vote, up from 3.2 million in 2002.

“The large number of absentee voters shows a keen interest in elections,” said Kelly Chesney, spokesperson for Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land.

The communities contacted, along with Detroit and Lansing, were Livonia, Grand Rapids, St. John’s, Ishpeming, Macomb Township, Traverse City, Carrolltown Township, Sterling Heights and Hillsdale. Except for Livonia, all reported increases in absentee requests.

Ed Sarpolus, vice president of EPIC/MRA also predicted an increase in absentee voter participation and expected that it will work in favor of the Democrats.

He said that increased absentee voting is one reason Gov. Jennifer Granholm took a 10-point lead over her challenger Dick DeVos in the latest poll, released on Tuesday.

Even though it’s only clear how absentee voting has affected the top of the ticket so far, it could have a trickle down effect that helps Democrats trying to get reelected or to oust an incumbent, he said.

But Bill Rustem, an analyst with Public Sector Consultants, disagreed. He said absentee voters, who are usually older and more affluent, tend to favor the Republican Party.

Of course, he said, that depends on whether the voter is from a traditionally Democratic area such as Detroit or one of the more Republican-leaning cities around the state.

Jason Moon, spokesperson for the Michigan Democratic Party, said he thinks the traditional wisdom about the GOP gleaning more of the absentee votes is wrong.

He said Granholm’s success with absentee voters in 2002 and the votes in her favor thus far this year are evidence that absentee voting could make the election go “either way.”

The Democrats aren’t taking any chances, though, and have aggressively sought absentee votes, mailing out nearly 2 million ballot applications to likely Democratic voters around the state.

The Michigan Republican Party also heavily pursued its likely supporters.

The realization by parties that they can lock in a number of votes by marketing to absentee voters is one reason the number of absentee voters has doubled in the last 20 years, going from about 10 percent of all voters to around 20 percent, said Rustem.

Other contributing factors are that it’s easier to vote absentee than it was two decades ago and that people are progressively becoming more aware of their right to vote absentee, especially in light of recent media coverage over Macomb County Clerk Carmella Sabaugh’s automatic mailings of ballots to seniors.

Voters who qualify have until 2 p.m. Saturday, November 4, to pick up an application for mailing, and can vote in their local clerk’s office through Monday.

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