DETROIT – Sales of non-plug-in internal combustion-powered vehicles peaked in 2017, according to a report by industry analysts at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, and have been in “permanent decline” since then as sales of plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles increase.
Sales of plug-in vehicles are also expected to triple their current levels by 2025, according to the report.
“Most importantly, the market is shifting from being driven primarily by policy, to one where organic consumer demand is the most important factor,” lead authors Colin McKerracher and Aleksandra O’Donovan wrote in the BloombergNEF report.
In 2025, the global auto industry will sell 20.6 million plug-in vehicles, according the report, compared to 6.6 million this year. Sales of purely internal combustion-powered vehicles, while projected to still make up the majority of total car sales in 2025, will have decreased.
Fully battery-powered vehicles will make up 75% of plug-in vehicle sales by 2025, according to the report. Plug-in hybrid vehicles are not expected to make a significant percentage of plug-in vehicle sale outside of Europe. Sales of plug-in hybrids will peak around 2026, the report predicts. Fuel cell vehicles, which run on electricity produced from hydrogen gas rather than being stored in batteries, are not expected to play a significant part in the passenger vehicle market.
Some automakers, like General Motors, have already announced plans to sell only emission-free vehicles by 2035, but currently make the vast majority of their revenue from gasoline powered trucks and SUVs. Other automakers, like BMW and Toyota, have been more cautious about setting firm deadlines for leaving behind internal combustion.
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