LANSING – A path to 56 seats for Michigan House Democrats exists, but increasingly difficult to envision transpiring with less than two weeks to go until Election Day. However, Democrats are increasingly confident that if a Democrat is not the speaker’s chair next session, neither will House Speaker Jase Bolger as they work hard and spend big to unseat him.

As Gongwer News Service first reported Wednesday, the spending is heavy in the 63rd House District with the Democrats now on network television, and Republicans so far countering with mail and radio ads.

While Democrats publicly say their goal and belief is they will win the majority, expectations are settling in that a pickup of four to six seats is most likely, and not the 10 or more they would need to grab the gavel. A four- to six-seat gain is in line with what Democrats have averaged in the last four presidential election years (4.5 seat average Democratic gain).

Democrats are heavily favored to win the 76th and 84th House Districts, but would need to win eight more seats to gain control. In the 76th, the party switching Rep. Roy Schmidt (R-Grand Rapids) is no longer campaigning and Democrat Winnie Brinks of Grand Rapids is fully expected to prevail. In the 84th House District, former Rep. Terry Brown, of Pigeon is expected to return for what will be his third term.

But Democrats winning another eight seats to gain control will only happen if they also can win the 25th House District in Macomb County, the 39th House District in Oakland County and the 67th District in Ingham County, which are all open seats currently held by Democrats that are all too close to call at this point.

The 25th features Republican Sean Clark of Warren and Democrat Henry Yanez of Sterling Heights, the 39th is between Republican Klint Kesto and Democrat Pam Jackson, both of Commerce Township, and the 67th is between Democrat Tom Cochran and Republican Jeff Oesterle, both of Mason.

But if they held those three, they would have to nearly run the table on the 13 other House seats that are still in play.

Of those, the Democrats are said to have the best shot at 52nd House District where Democrat Gretchen Driskell of Saline is trying to unseat Rep. Mark Ouimet (R-Scio Township), the 71st House District which is a rematch between Democrat Theresa Abed of Grand Ledge and Rep. Deb Shaughnessy (R-Charlotte), the 101st House District race between Democrat Allen O’Shea of Copemish and Rep. Ray Franz (R-Onekama), and the 110th which is another rematch race from 2010 between Democrat Scott Dianda of Calumet and Rep. Matt Huuki (R-Atlantic Mine).

There are other factors at play in these races, including the millions the unions are spending on supporting passage of Proposal 12-2, which would enshrine collective bargaining rights in the Constitution.

Some feel that money could have been better spent on House races that are within the margins right now. And related to that is the fact that there are four other proposed constitutional amendments on the ballot this November and those on both sides of each proposal have been spending big on network television around the state. That has driven up the cost for the political parties to purchase air time, leaving most to settle for cable and radio spots, or pump more money into mailers.

The same is true, but for a different reason in the 57th House District, between Democrat Jim Berryman of Adrian and Rep. Nancy Jenkins (R-Clayton) in Lenawee County, which sits on the border of Ohio. The Toledo television market is extremely expensive, because the presidential contest and U.S. Senate races in Ohio are incredibly more competitive than in Michigan.

Throughout the campaign, Gongwer News Service had been tracking the most completive House seats in the state and has now dropped five from its watch list, based on activity in the districts and other factors. Democrats are believed to be in control in the 21st House District where Rep. Dian Slavens of Canton Township is seeking a third term and in the 26th House District where Rep. Jim Townsend of Royal Oak is seeking a second term.

And in the remaining seats, three Republican freshmen are expected to win – Rep. Anthony Forlini of Harrison Township in the 24th House District, Rep. Jeff Farrington of Utica in the 30th House District and Rep. Joel Johnson of Clare in the 97th House District.

Below, Gongwer breaks down where the competitive districts are across the map and what each candidate has going for them. Dynamics of each race and the political landscape in general are always subject to change.

And as of now, Democrats expect to make to gains from the current 64-46 Republican majority, but it will take everything going in their favor to win back the majority.

The analysis does not constitute a prediction of who will win in November, only an assessment of where the races stand today.

This story was provided by Gongwer News Service. To subscribe, click on Gongwer.Com