LANSING – Donald Trump enters the six-day fight to win Michigan’s Republican presidential primary the frontrunner in the race and the favorite to emerge with a victory from the state, Republican analysts said, but there is still plenty at stake.
With Michigan awarding its 59 delegates to the Republican National Convention on a proportional basis, any candidate that can hit 15 percent will come away with some delegates. If, hypothetically, Trump takes 35 percent with U.S. Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio at 20 percent each and Ohio Governor John Kasich at 15 percent, then Trump would come away with roughly 23 delegates, Cruz and Rubio with 13 each and Kasich with 10.
In many ways, what the primaries and caucuses taking place March 8 – headlined by Michigan – are all about is positioning in advance of the huge winner-take-all prizes up for grabs on March 15 when Rubio and Kasich hope to win their home states of Florida and Ohio, respectively, and climb back into the race with big delegate hauls.
A Trump landslide here would further erode the hopes of Kasich and Rubio of trying to make a stand once the winner-take-all phase of the race starts.
Ben Carson effectively suspended his campaign Wednesday and there will be a slew of candidates on the ballot who are no longer campaigning, but even if one of them somehow got 15 percent of the vote, under Michigan Republican Party rules, they would be ineligible for delegates.
The Super Tuesday races saw Trump pile up the most victories and extend his lead in delegates.
“Donald Trump is the clear frontrunner in Michigan and it is a state that is well suited for him in terms of his appeal to independent blue collar voters – previously known as Reagan Democrats,” said Republican consultant John Yob. “Governor Kasich also has the potential to perform well with the same sort of coalition that we put together in the Rick for Michigan campaign.”
Yob was a key adviser during the primary phase of Snyder’s gubernatorial campaign, which Snyder won with 37 percent of the vote as other more conservative candidates split the conservative vote.
With Michigan’s system of awarding delegates, even the second and third place finishers will come out of the state with a decent delegate haul, Yob said.
“There isn’t much advantage to winning Michigan from a delegate perspective,” he said. The key is to get to 15 percent.”
Republican strategist Greg McNeilly said the proportional voting system indeed is key.
“Trump’s nationalism is certainly in the pole position,” he said. “Trump may end up with a plurality a week from now but Michigan is not a winner-takes-all-state so there will be multiple winners next Tuesday, namely Rubio, Cruz and Trump.”
Kasich’s emphasis on retail campaigning will not be enough to close the gap with just a week to do it, McNeilly said. The decline in the state’s mainstream news media will limit his ability to use hustle to break through, he said.
While Trump is the favorite in Michigan, McNeilly raised a couple caveats. Carson’s voters are unlikely to move to Trump, and Trump is scoring better among non-Republican voters than Republican voters, he said. Republican voters here also are unfamiliar with Trump’s negatives, he said.
“Will Republican voters have a chance to be informed before choosing?” he said.
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